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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It often functions as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

Yet the latest field is profoundly different. The group of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and recent strugglers ascending collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

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