Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
